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How crowds become stupider
人群如何变得更愚蠢

Prediction markets suffer when we all think the same way
当所有人思路一致时,预测市场的表现会受损。

For most of the World Cup game on Wednesday, the wisdom of crowds looked absent. Prediction sites gave England an overwhelming chance of beating the Democratic Republic of Congo. Yet the men in white were still behind until 74 minutes in. Earlier in the week, Germany had been favourites before losing to Paraguay and the Netherlands were unexpectedly defeated by Morocco.

在周三那场世界杯比赛的大部分时间里,“群体智慧”似乎并未显现。预测网站此前一致看好英格兰队,认为他们战胜刚果民主共和国队的胜算极高。然而身着白衣的英格兰队直到第74分钟仍然落后。就在本周早些时候,德国原本也是热门球队,却负于巴拉圭;而荷兰则出人意料地输给了摩洛哥。

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